The war in Iran is a strategic blunder
Sixteen days in and Iran is waging asymmetric warfare exactly the way one would expect: decentralized resistance, with military units operating independently to inflict economic pain on the US and allies. The US military is extremely effective at destroying targets - but it does not take much to shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
This was entirely predictable, which is why several smarter Presidents did not launch an attack on Iran.
Iran has a strategy. Meanwhile, on our side, no one can articulate a plausible strategic goal. Is it regime change, disarmament, or denuclearization? Unconditional surrender, or an diplomatic agreement? It changes every day. No one seems to know what we are trying to accomplish, or how to get there.
The idea that the US will entirely degrade Iran's missile and drone capacity from the air is laughable - it is a nation of 90 million, comparable to Alaska in terms of land area, and has been preparing for this scenario for years. Israel struggled to eliminate (admittedly simpler) projectiles from Gaza and southern Lebanon, so how likely is the US going to be able to accomplish such a mission in the much larger and well-resourced territory of Iran?
And again: it does not take much to close the Strait. The problem is less about Iran's ability to sink ships as it is about insurance and risk management. The big shipping giants are literally not paid enough to take on the risk, and no amount of tweeting from the White House or chest beating from Whiskey Pete is going to change that.
The White House has, petulantly, demanded that the US' historic allies participate in a naval operation to open the Strait. But they are understandably reluctant to risk their own troops for Donald Trump's epic vanity. And in any case the Administration has spent the entirety of the last year insulting each and every one of them (and in the case of Denmark and Canada, threatening them with war).
I doubt the US can eliminate this threat without a political agreement, or turning Iran into a failed state - one imagines an endless series of "mowing the lawn" operations not unlike Israeli incursions into Gaza in the era prior to October 7. This would be a moral catastrophe, a strategic failure, and a political disaster. Maybe Netanyahu would like that but it isn't what Americans want.
Meanwhile GOP messaging on the war becomes more Orwellian every day. Two years ago: vote Trump to avoid a war with Iran. Then, days ago: it's not a war. And now: Iran has been "at war" with us for 47 years (including, apparently, the brief period in the '80s when the Reagan administration sold weapons to them). We have always been at war with Eurasia, indeed.
All this and I've said nothing of the moral implications here. One does not have to defend the Iranian regime or the IRGC to recognize that thousands are going to die and millions are going to suffer for what will likely amount to a strategic mistake.
This is what electing an unfit President gets you.
This is the disaster we always feared.